Bitcoin Bull Runs: Historical Analysis of Market Cycles

Oct, 9 2025

When Bitcoin’s price rockets higher, everyone wants to know why and what comes next. This article digs into every major bull run since 2013, pulls out the patterns that repeat after each halving, and shows how growing institutional participation reshapes the game. By the end you’ll see the key metrics to watch, the common pitfalls, and a realistic outlook for the current cycle.

Key Takeaways

• Each bull run follows a four‑phase cycle: Accumulation, Growth, Bubble, Crash.
• Halving events act as supply shocks that precede the Growth phase.
• Institutional adoption shifted from almost none in 2013 to dominant drivers in 2024.
• Typical peak‑to‑trough corrections still hover around 75‑80%.
• Current market signals point to a potential $200,000 peak by late 2025.

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a proof‑of‑work blockchain. Since its launch in 2009, it has experienced four full market cycles tied to the protocol’s halving an event that cuts the block reward for miners by 50%, creating a predictable supply reduction every roughly four years. These supply shocks, combined with changing demand dynamics, generate the explosive price moves known as Bitcoin bull runs.

1. The Four‑Year Cycle Blueprint

Researchers such as Calen and Brown (2023) outline a repeatable four‑phase model:

1. Accumulation: Prices trade in a tight range, volume is low, and sentiment is bearish.
2. Growth: Prices start edging up, mining hash rate climbs, and exchange reserves shrink.
3. Bubble: Exponential price rise, extreme media hype, and the Fear & Greed Index hitting “Extreme Greed”.
4. Crash: Sharp correction of 75‑80% from the peak, resetting the cycle.

This framework holds for the 2013, 2017, 2020‑2021, and 2024 cycles, even though the catalysts differ.

2. Deep‑Dive into Each Bull Run

Below is a side‑by‑side comparison of the four major rallies, focusing on price growth, key drivers, and market maturity.

3. How Halvings Shape the Growth Phase

The supply shock from a halving reduces the block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, cutting new issuance by half tightens the market at a time when demand from new entrants is rising. Historical data shows that price appreciation typically accelerates about 12‑18 months after the event, coinciding with a decline in exchange‑held Bitcoin and a jump in hash‑rate.

For example, after the 2020 halving, exchange reserves fell from ~13% to under 8% of total supply, while the hash‑rate climbed 30% in the next year, setting the stage for the 2020‑2021 bull.

4. Institutional Adoption - The Game Changer

Early cycles were dominated by retail speculation and media hype. By 2020, institutional money entered the arena through trusts, futures, and direct purchases. Spot Bitcoin ETFs exchange‑traded funds that give investors exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly launched in the U.S. in January2024 and have amassed over 850,000 BTC (≈$50B) by November2024.

Institutional adoption brings two key benefits:

• Liquidity depth - tighter spreads and less slippage during large trades.
• Regulatory legitimacy - custodial solutions from firms like Fidelity and Coinbase reduce counter‑party risk.

Analysts at Standard Chartered now model the 2024‑2025 cycle assuming a 7‑10% institutional inflow each quarter, which pushes the projected peak to roughly $200,000.

5. The Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) - A Practical Tool

Colin Talks Crypto introduced the CBBI to quantify where the market sits in the four‑phase cycle. The index tracks nine on‑chain and market‑wide metrics, including:

• Exchange‑reserve ratio
• Hash‑rate growth rate
• CoinDesk Fear & Greed score
• Spot‑ETF inflow volume

When the CBBI scores above 70, historical data shows a 92% chance the market is in the Bubble phase. As of November2024 the index sits at 64, suggesting the Growth phase is still unfolding and the peak could be months away.

6. Risk Landscape for the Current Cycle

Even with stronger infrastructure, risks remain:

• Regulatory uncertainty: Ongoing debates in the EU (MiCA) and the U.S. could affect ETF flows.
• Macro‑economic shocks: A sudden interest‑rate hike could depress risk assets, including Bitcoin.
• Tech disruptions: Potential breakthroughs in quantum computing might challenge PoW security, though timelines are speculative.

Risk mitigation strategies that seasoned traders employ include setting stop‑losses at the 25‑30% retracement level, diversifying into high‑quality altcoins during the Bubble phase, and maintaining a core‑only position (e.g., 60‑80% of crypto allocation in Bitcoin) to ride out corrections.

7. What to Watch Going Forward

Based on the four‑phase model and current data, keep an eye on these signals:

1. Exchange‑reserve depletion: A drop below 5% often precedes the Bubble.
2. ETF inflow acceleration: Sustained >10% monthly growth hints at institutional confidence.
3. Hash‑rate stability: Consistent upward trend confirms miner confidence.
4. CBBI crossing 70: Historically aligns with the final 3‑6 months before a peak.

If three or more of these metrics align, history suggests a high probability of a new peak within the next year.